Flightradar24.com shows info from the transponder of the Ukrainian jet that ends WELL BEFORE the point that the Iranian Republican Guards have determine to be where the missile struck the jet. Possibilities for WHY this might have occurred include:
- IRGC is mistaken;
- IRGC is manipulating: trying to improve their case that the plane had turned toward a military installation;
- IRGC tried to use Electronic Warfare (“jamming”) before shooting the plane down;
- USA EW confused the Air Defense operator;
- Something happened on the plane that caused an end to transponder transmission (bomb on board?).
Flightradar24.com shows the path traced out from the location info from the transponder transmission. It ends very soon after the plane has turned slightly to the right. That is also just after crossing a major roadway.
flightradar24 has also analyzed the flight path of a dozen or more previous flights of PS732. This analysis shows that the flight path taken by PS732 on this occasion is not unusual – the plane traveled a path that was similar to what it as done in the past.
The IRGC map shows that the plane traveled much further after the transponder stopped working. The point of missile impact is well after the end of the flightradar24 path.
The orange flames are where IRGC says the missile struck the plane. The red dot to the right of the orange flames is the crash site.
The plane evidently made a sharp turn to the right AFTER it was hit by the missile. It seems likely that the pilots were no longer in control after the missile struck.
IF THE MISSILE IMPACT DID NOT END THE TRANSPONDER SIGNAL, THEN WHAT DID?
Interestingly, USA had warned off aircraft from Tehran airspace and had the most to gain from an “accidental” downing of an aircraft by the Iranian military. Could it be that USA deliberately blinded Iranian air defenses just as the plane turned toward an Iranian military installation?
UPDATE
A posting on Medium by ckinfinite provides useful information about the terrain near Tehran airport.
Apparently, the plane’s transponder stopped transmitting just before the plane becomes visible to the air defense operators!
I think we can reasonably surmise that someone wanted Iranian air defense personnel to be confused about the nature of the PS732 flight.
Thanks Jackrabbit for the separate blog post! Question – other than the Iranian presentation, is there other evidence that roughly pins down the time of the missile(s) launch? I’ve seen some videos before that show an explosion, followed by the crash, and one can back calculate times from that I suppose. But I think that it is important also to rule out the “two missile” theory that was just suggested on MOA.
I’m wondering this also. I posted on MofA on an old thread that various commentators, including on the bellingcat site and also a reporter affiliated with both nytimes and bellingcat, assumed that the reason the nytimes person started videoing the plane was that they heard an initial explosion (either another not-entirely-effective missile, or maybe a bomb, or maybe a mechanical problem?). I’m confused as to why most discussions leave this out given that I haven’t seen it debunked at all, and given its relevance to the transponder and flight path inconsistencies.
The odds that someone connected to Bellingcat would randomly happen to have a camera pointed at the one point in space and time at precisely the instant that something of massive geopolitical import was happening purely by random chance are so infinitely small as to be non existent.
That single factor tells us that the scumbags expected something to happen and therefore it is quite reasonable to conclude that the AZempire was manipulating circumstances to ensure this event took place.
Any competent investigation would explore that rabbit hole very thoroughly.