Vegas Shooter: Illusive Motive – Clear Moral Hazard

After the Shock of what happened, there is now a frantic search for motive.  We may never know for sure what that motive was but we have enough clues to say that the motive was likely one of three things: 1) a physiological abnormality (tumor, drugs, or PTSD), 2) a political agenda, or 3)  insurance fraud.

The first seems far-fetched.  Paddock planned and prepared over a time period that is likely to have been weeks, if not months.  And he set up cameras to monitor the hallway – showing that he knew that what he was doing was wrong and would prompt a response.  The statement from his long-term girlfriend indicates that she noticed no change that would indicate a physiological abnormality.

Both the political establishment, and those closest to Stephen Paddock want to avoid criticism and disrepute. Thus we see a deft covering up via misdirection and silence:

  • The media has studiously avoiding any mention of the attack on a Washington DC baseball team of Republicans on June 13.  The DC shooter used a semi-automatic and didn’t claim a political agenda.  The only way that we know that his attack was politically motivated is because just before he began he asked someone: “Are those Democrats or Republicans playing there”.
  • Stephen Paddocks brother Eric has obfuscated and re-directed press questions about motive.  He has said that Stephen wasn’t a member of a political or religious organization but that doesn’t mean that Stephen didn’t have strong political views.  Stephen’s ex-wives and girlfriend are either not talking or taking a similar know-nothing/not-my-fault line: which doesn’t add to our understand of Stephen’s character or motivations.

    It’s also interesting that Eric says that his brother’s conducting a massacre is an inconceivable shock, yet accepts that his brother did his as “fact”.

Yesterday, another possibility for motive emerged with the announcement by Sheriff Lombardo that Stephen Paddock had planned to survive.  This opens up other possible motives like insurance fraud (by escaping and faking his death).

Tannerite explosion

Set-up as patsy?
Yet another possibility has emerged even before the time-line was altered: that Paddock was a patsy.

He had too many guns and ammo in the room for the attack that he made and the activities of the Security Guard are very suspicious.  Even the MGM CEO’s reducing his exposure in September to MGM stock after a buy-back was authorized is a big red flag.


Finally, whether the motivation was political or monetary, the Vegas attack reflects poorly on American society.  Many of our problems can be traced to priorities of Empire that are hidden or obfuscated from the general public.  These priorities generate divisiveness that is fueled by a corrupt, unaccountable elite.

The debate that has been sparked should be about more than just guns.  The shooting is likely just a symptom of deeper ills. And those ills create a ‘moral hazard’.  People learn what is acceptable behavior from their leaders.  A corrupt, unaccountable elite leads to similar behavior in the people.


Note: Post updated to reflect new information such as revised time-line.


Photo Credits: Cover: ABC News; Inset: CNN

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